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It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.

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“In other countries, such systems detect the time taken, every bet placed, how is the game played and thus help to curb addiction,” Mmolotsi said.

Kgatleng Central MP Mpho Morolong also said gambling should be understood as entertainment rather than a route to financial security.

“Gambling should be taught as entertainment rather than a way to make money,” Morolong said.

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FATF’s warning on illegal and offshore gambling will resonate in Denmark. Last year, Spillemyndigheden secured a court order to block 178 unlicensed gambling sites, the largest such action in the regulator’s history. 

The case highlighted how illegal operators disguise their presence through multiple site variations, a tactic the FATF report also flags as a red flag indicator. 

Denmark’s approach reflects a wider pattern that FATF has tracked for years through its own grey and black listing system. Under this system, jurisdictions with weak AML/CTF controls face increased monitoring or reputational sanction.