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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is in the middle of a heated US Senate campaign against Democratic challenger James Talarico. Paxton will be succeeded as Texas AG by state Senator Mayes Middleton, a Republican from Galveston, or his Democratic opponent Nathan Johnson, a state senator from Dallas.
State Senator Bob Hall represents Senate District 2 in Texas, a district that contains parts of Dallas. Hall, 84, did not see a distinction between event contracts and sports wagers, noting that the former is just dressed up in a different manner.
“They’re different costumes on gambling,” he said. “Some have high heels and a tiara and others have on miniskirts or a bikini.”
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“There should be, in my opinion, a review of the whole ISC or consumption tax framework and find a kind of alignment or a better way to get an income in terms of taxes, but that should be balanced in order to avoid the disruption of businesses and a migration of customers to the illegal market.”
Atucha warns there is a tipping point where higher taxes can undermine channelisation, citing the UK and Germany as important case studies.
“I sometimes wish regulators would look at other cases,” he adds. “I mean, what happened in Germany, what’s happening in the UK.”
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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
